Barcelona squandered the opportunity to enter the October international break as La Liga’s leaders, as they fell to a stunning 4–1 defeat at an improving Sevilla on Sunday afternoon.

Real Madrid’s 3–1 triumph over a good Villarreal outfit means it’s Xabi Alonso’s side who lead the way at the second interval of 2025–26.

Spain’s two behemoths are projected to go back and forth at the summit this season, with Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid the only team to break their duopoly over La Liga during the past decade. And while Atléti have been resurgent over the past month following a poor start to the campaign, it looks unlikely for a third party to enter the title discussion.

Every La Liga champion has failed to hold onto their crown since Barcelona went back-to-back in 2019, so that trend would suggest the current league leaders are the favorites to hold the title aloft next May.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer projects Spain’s race at the summit to play out.

Barça’s slip-up in Seville means Madrid have a two-point lead at the top of the table, and Opta currently rates Alonso’s side as the favorites to win the title.

Madrid are projected to earn a little more than 83 points on their way to glory, which would be the lowest points haul of a La Liga champion since Los Blancos’ tally of 76 in 2006–07.

While their current advantage over Barcelona is slim, and they’re projected to finish with barely two more points, Madrid’s chances of winning the league are rated at 53.9%. Barça have a 38.56% chance, expecting to finish with a little over 81 points—seven fewer than they earned last season.

Opta is backing Atlético Madrid, who are five games unbeaten domestically, to finish third—as they have in three of the previous four seasons. They’re poised to be a distant, third, though, finishing with less than 70 points. As a result, the supercomputer gives them a 4.17% chance of winning their third La Liga title since 2013–14.

The current third-place incumbents, Villarreal (2.56%), are the only other team with more than a 1% chance of finishing atop the table. Thus, a two-horse race is expected between the Clásico rivals.